# AMR lifecycle economics: a reproducible fictional stress test

Prepared 2026-09-06T00:00:00Z; not_published; human review not recorded.

Fictional inputs and deterministic illustrations; no customer evidence. Release recommendation: experiment_only.

Buyer: Operations sponsor, product leader and finance partner considering fleet expansion

Decision: Which service, recovery, supply and sensing assumptions could invalidate the fleet's repeatability and value thesis?

Gate: scale; mandate: product-leadership-program.

A clone of the AMR preset with all failure switches disabled, stage set to Scale, and descriptive scenario identity changed. This is an unperturbed hypothetical comparator, not observed operations or the original preset's enabled-failure mix.

| Fictional scenario | Upfront EUR | Annual operating EUR | Lifecycle TCO EUR | Lifecycle net value EUR | Payback months |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fictional baseline: all failure switches off | 1400640 | 421880 | 3088160 | 12470990.34 | 4.8 |
| Service overload, severity 75% | 1400640 | 489920 | 3360320 | 11728814.34 | 5.1 |
| Recovery failure, severity 75% | 1400640 | 462704 | 3251456 | 11132654.34 | 5.4 |
| Supplier delay, severity 75% | 1400640 | 421880 | 3088160 | 12470990.34 | 4.8 |
| Sensor degradation, severity 75% | 1400640 | 454539.2 | 3218796.8 | 11635329.54 | 5.2 |
| Service overload and recovery failure, each 75% | 1400640 | 530744 | 3523616 | 10390478.34 | 5.7 |

- Severity is a scenario input to versioned consequence formulas, not an empirical probability or measured effect size.
- Only the declared failure settings (enabled state and selected severity) differ between comparable runs, apart from descriptive scenario identity. Inputs, results and hashes are included for independent recalculation.
- Productive value is an assumed customer benefit; contract revenue is shown separately and is not added to that benefit. Lifecycle net value is not supplier profit, NPV or a forecast.
- The existing engine does not discount cash flows or model tax, financing, utilization distributions or correlated real-world failure probabilities.
- The illustrative exposure counts in Product System context are held constant; the failure engine does not predict accepted pallet transfers or operator staffing. Do not read the cost-per-declared-success diagnostic as stress-adjusted throughput economics.
- A delayed supplier may leave modeled release weeks unchanged when the declared roadmap already contains slack. Read the changed lead-time field rather than claiming every stress must move every output.
- Before investment, replace assumptions with scoped site evidence, capture omitted costs and compare alternatives. A favorable modeled signal still recommends experiment_only.

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